Project: Understanding the contours of climate polarisation – who are the believers and deniers and what drives them?
Date: September 2021
We continue to listen actively to various shifting narratives within online conversations, identifying the modalities of their interactions and chart paths towards healthier discussions. This case study focuses on understanding the contours of climate polarisation and deciphering the driving forces behind climate believers and deniers.
At Ripple Research, we have three main areas of focus: climate action, public health and evolution of democracy. We work with our partners as well as regularly conduct internal research into these focus areas.
One of our major research topics within climate action was to continue to listen actively to various shifting narratives within online conversations, identifying the modalities of their interactions and chart paths towards healthier discussions. This case study focuses on understanding the contours of climate polarisation and deciphering the driving forces behind climate believers and deniers.
Why focus on climate change polarisation?
Social media and public polarisation over climate change require urgent redressing if we are to facilitate constructive conversations in pursuit of progress to protect our planetary boundaries. Believers and deniers of climate change continue to maintain resolute online silos and run-counter conversations.
As climate change oscillates between a hoax and an immediate danger, tackling it collectively in the future will require an engagement somewhere in the middle.
Our approach
To gain a coherent and holistic picture of the spectrum of climate believers and deniers, we conducted a large-scale active listening exercise surrounding the climate change conversation.
Our social media polarisation and perception analysis took place from 2019 to 2020 across over 116 million posts and 15 million unique authors.
At Ripple Research, we made a conscious effort to not only listen to the mainstream conversations around climate change but also to the ‘other side’ that focuses on denial and scepticism.
We built up a lexicon and search methodology to isolate conversations of each specific group, where they are located geographically and to understand their concerns and motivations. This enabled us to explore the driving forces behind climate polarisation and investigate how climate deniers are geographically dispersed and the dominant ways they share information.
What makes the Ripple Research insights unique is the mapping of emotions over time, uncovering how certain climate narratives evoke fear, sadness and joy.
Our discovery
Our research uncovered the geographical and topical distribution of climate change believers and deniers, including the dominant methods by which information is generated and transmitted by each group. Although we found that climate change believers far out-number their denier counterparts in both reach and volume of posts and authors, the deniers have generated exponential reach and maintain a stubborn and effective online presence.
Here are the key findings about the two polarised groups:
Group 1: The believers
The geo-location data of the post shows the Believers are distributed widely around the world
The dominant emotion for this group is sadness
They experience spikes of joy around significant events such as Earth Day
The trending influencers have shifted significantly between 2019 and 2020
Influencers are dominated by politicians, celebrities and activists – not scientists or institutions
The most retweeted content appeals not only to data or science but also to graphic, emotional and sometimes shocking imagery.
Trending topics are continuously evolving. Conversations surrounding topics like the Amazon have faded and are being replaced with topics like the Australian bushfires, Hyundai’s Dark Selfie Challenge for Earth Day and the K-Pop band BTS have engaged engagement with climate change with their ARMY followers.
Group 2: The deniers
Climate deniers are concentrated in a few regions on the map including North America and Europe
This group is significantly smaller than the Believers but punches above its weight and is powerful in steering climate conversations
The dominant emotion for this group is also sadness, combined with major spikes of fear
Major cyclical events like Earth Day do not have a big impact on this group
Trending influencers have changed significantly between 2019 and 2020 but activity surrounding Donald Trump continues to spark mention volume
The most retweeted content also appeals to ‘science’ and ‘logic’
Trending topics surround climate change or global warming as a hoax as well as climate fraud